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The CPI-W for June 2012 was released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and unfortunately, the index continued its decline from last month. The CPI-W index fell from 226.600 to 226.036, which is 1.3% higher than the third quarter 2011 average (the baseline for COLA calculations). Once again, energy prices appear to be the culprit, as food prices and other prices increased slightly or were unchanged.
The June report is the last one that doesn’t “count” toward the COLA calculation (recall that the COLA is based on the 3rd quarter only). It seems likely that the size of the 2012 COLA will depend on what happens to energy prices over the coming months. The July CPI report will be released on August 15, so check back then for an updated analysis.